Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context. In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate day-ahead time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations. Our approach exhibits robust performance in solar irradiance forecasting, including zero-shot generalization tests at unobserved solar stations, and holds great promise in promoting the effective integration of solar power into the grid.

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries.Prior research on developing deep learning models for time-series forecasting has often concentrated on isolated aspects, such as long-term point forecasting or short-term probabilistic estimations. This narrow focus may result in skewed methodological choices and hinder the adaptability of these models to uncharted scenarios.While there is a rising trend in developing universal forecasting models, a thorough understanding of their advantages and drawbacks, especially regarding essential forecasting needs like point and distributional forecasts across short and long horizons, is still lacking.In this paper, we present ProbTS, a benchmark tool designed as a unified platform to evaluate these fundamental forecasting needs and to conduct a rigorous comparative analysis of numerous cutting-edge studies from recent years.We dissect the distinctive data characteristics arising from disparate forecasting requirements and elucidate how these characteristics can skew methodological preferences in typical research trajectories, which often fail to fully accommodate essential forecasting needs.Building on this, we examine the latest models for universal time-series forecasting and discover that our analyses of methodological strengths and weaknesses are also applicable to these universal models.Finally, we outline the limitations inherent in current research and underscore several avenues for future exploration.

Multivariate time-series forecasting plays a crucial role in many real-world applications.

Time-series forecasting tasks are central to a broad range of application domains, including stock pricepredictions [1,2],servicedemandforecasting [3,4],andmedicalprognoses[5-7].

We introduce a model-agnostic forward diffusion process for time-series forecasting that decomposes signals into spectral components, preserving structured temporal patterns such as seasonality more effectively than standard diffusion. Unlike prior work that modifies the network architecture or diffuses directly in the frequency domain, our proposed method alters only the diffusion process itself, making it compatible with existing diffusion backbones (e.g., DiffWave, TimeGrad, CSDI). By staging noise injection according to component energy, it maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies throughout the diffusion trajectory, thereby improving the recoverability of long-term patterns. This strategy enables the model to maintain the signal structure for a longer period in the forward process, leading to improved forecast quality. Across standard forecasting benchmarks, we show that applying spectral decomposition strategies, such as the Fourier or Wavelet transform, consistently improves upon diffusion models using the baseline forward process, with negligible computational overhead. The code for this paper is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/D-FDP-4A29.

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) represent a promising approach to developing artificial neural networks that are both energy-efficient and biologically plausible.However, applying SNNs to sequential tasks, such as text classification and time-series forecasting, has been hindered by the challenge of creating an effective and hardware-friendly spike-form positional encoding (PE) strategy.Drawing inspiration from the central pattern generators (CPGs) in the human brain, which produce rhythmic patterned outputs without requiring rhythmic inputs, we propose a novel PE technique for SNNs, termed CPG-PE.We demonstrate that the commonly used sinusoidal PE is mathematically a specific solution to the membrane potential dynamics of a particular CPG.Moreover, extensive experiments across various domains, including time-series forecasting, natural language processing, and image classification, show that SNNs with CPG-PE outperform their conventional counterparts.Additionally, we perform analysis experiments to elucidate the mechanism through which SNNs encode positional information and to explore the function of CPGs in the human brain.This investigation may offer valuable insights into the fundamental principles of neural computation.

Yet, such GNN models pre-dominantly capture only lower order interactions, that is, pairwise relations among nodes, and also largely ignore intrinsic time-conditioned information on the underlying topology of multivariate time series. To address these limitations, we propose a new time-aware GNN architecture which amplifies the power of the recently emerged simplicial neural networks with a time-conditioned topological knowledge representation in a form of zigzag persistence. That is, our new approach, Zigzag Filtration Curve based Supra-Hodge Convolution Networks (ZFC-SHCN) is built upon the two main components: (i) a new highly computationally efficientzigzag persistence curve which allows us to systematically encode time-conditioned topological information, and (ii) a new temporal multiplex graph representation module for learning higher-order network interactions. We discuss theoretical properties of the proposed time-conditioned topological knowledge representation and extensively validate the new time-aware ZFC-SHCN model in conjunction with time series forecasting on a broad range of synthetic and real-world datasets: traffic flows, COVID-19 biosurveillance, Ethereum blockchain, surface air temperature, wind energy, and vector autoregressions. Our experiments demonstrate that the ZFC-SHCN achieves the state-of-the-art performance with lower requirements on computational costs.

Time series forecasting in real world environments faces significant challenges non stationarity, multi scale temporal patterns, and distributional shifts that degrade model stability and accuracy. This study propose AdaMamba, a unified forecasting architecture that integrates adaptive normalization, multi scale trend extraction, and contextual sequence modeling to address these challenges. AdaMamba begins with an Adaptive Normalization Block that removes non stationary components through multi scale convolutional trend extraction and channel wise recalibration, enabling consistent detrending and variance stabilization. The normalized sequence is then processed by a Context Encoder that combines patch wise embeddings, positional encoding, and a Mamba enhanced Transformer layer with a mixture of experts feed forward module, allowing efficient modeling of both long range dependencies and local temporal dynamics. A lightweight prediction head generates multi horizon forecasts, and a denormalization mechanism reconstructs outputs by reintegrating local trends to ensure robustness under varying temporal conditions. AdaMamba provides strong representational capacity with modular extensibility, supporting deterministic prediction and compatibility with probabilistic extensions. Its design effectively mitigates covariate shift and enhances predictive reliability across heterogeneous datasets. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that AdaMamba's combination of adaptive normalization and expert augmented contextual modeling yields consistent improvements in stability and accuracy over conventional Transformer based baselines.